Predicting things is a dangerous game. Just ask David Icke. Of course, going onto the UK's most popular chat show and predicting the end of the world always looked like being a long shot. On the other hand, imagine if the kudos he would have got if that one had been right...
"ere Steve. There's 4 blokes on horses outside. One called War*, one called Famine, one called Death, and one called Pestilence. What kind of parents call... What's that you say? Armageddon? Bleedin' 'eck! That David Icke's only gone and called it right! Fair play to the mad bastard!"
So, my point is that, with the benefit of hindsight, predictions make you look silly. More so now that the internet is a sponge of information which be used against you at any point.
As an aficionado of making people look silly, I like checking back on these things. Every Christmas, I used to check back to the January editions of the music mags to see how they got on. Credit to Melody Maker for predicting the rise of Coldplay in their "21 bands for the 21st Century" back in 2000. Although given that I don't recall who the other 20 were probably says more about them that it does about my powers of recall.
Less normal is it for a magazine, say World Soccer, to give a list out in, say October 1998, of the 20 players who would star in the next World Cup. As I lay trying to sleep, some 10 years on, I remembered this article and thought it would make an interesting look at how they got on. So I tracked down the offending article.
And in no particular order, other than alphabetically...
1. Nicolas Anelka
Fair play. Its not a terrible shout. He hasn't really done it on the international stage, but is first choice for Les Bleus these days. Is he a good player? Yes. Has he underachieved? Massively.
2. Vladimir But
A Dortmund player at the time, he was regarded as one of the brightest midfield talents in Europe. Ultimately became a journeyman midfielder in the Bundesliga, winning two caps or Russia in the process. Now back playing for his hometown club, Chernomorets Novorossiysk.
3. Pablo Contreras
Interestingly, as it turns out, he's currently a back up centre half for my Atleti team in Football Manager. Though he's average and is on loan at PSV. Spent a couple of years with Monaco, before moving onto spend 7 seasons with Celta Vigo and is now in Portugal with Braga, Won 41 caps. Clearly a decent player, but had hardly set the world on fire.
4. Ivan de la Pena
Has enjoyed a rennaisance of late, coming to the fore as a key part of Espanyol's midfield. Flattered to deceive at Barcelona and Lazio, although did win 5 caps for Spain prior to Germany 2006. Has since faded, but his passing remains world class at times. Never lacked the talent. Definitely lacked the desire.
5. Mustafa Dogan
A German of Turk descent, he won two caps for the national squad. Spent a while at Fenerbache, now plys his trade at Besiktas.
6. Edgar
Signed for Real Madrid from Benfica as a 21 year old, but never played a game. Was shifted on to Malaga. Last year of in 2005, still there, seeking the opportunity to represent Angola in the 2006 World Cup, despite having played an international for Portugal. Now seems to be at Boavista in Portugal. Another player whose star twinkled for a moment, but who's career never really took off.
7. Felipe
Touted as the heir apparent to Roberto Carlos, he won 13 caps while playing for numerous Brazilian clubs. Now seems to play for Qatar's finest Al-Sadd. We can assume things never really got going.
8. Daisuke Ichikawa
A pacy right winger, who has never filled his potential. Has spent his whole career at Shimszu S Pulse, earning 10 Japanese caps between 1998 and 2002.
9. Robbie Keane
Robbie is a great striker, and is in the minority of those in this list who made a mark on the 2002 World Cup with a great goal against Germany. Has never became the star he was supposed to become, but there are fewer more instinctive strikers in the penalty box.
10. Peter Ofori Quaye
A Ghanian now playing in Israel. Spent a large chunk of his career in Greece but has never been capped by his country.
11. Andres Oliviera
Another about whom little information is out there. Appears to be playing in Australia for Perth. The implication being that it has went pear shaped at some point...
12. Michael Owen
Ah, lil Mikey. Its arguable that his career peaked with an incredible goal against Argentina in St. Etienne back in 1998. And really, how could of it? Still a great striker, but injuries have robbed on his greatest asset, that fantastic turn of speed.
13. Adil Ramzi
A Morrocan playing for FC Utrecht. Spent most of career in the Netherlands without doing too much damage. Has won 19 caps for his country, scoring twice in the process.
14. Juan Román Riquelme
A true genius. The haters thing he's too slow and too lazy to be a great player. They're right - he is both these things. But, on his day, there is no football on the planet that can match the way he effortlessly controls matches. His passing majestic, he is a true enigma. A fragile one at that - everyne watching knew he'd miss that penalty against Arsenal. Words more beautiful that I can produce have been used to desscribe the man.
Here and
here15. Laurent Sanda
Seems to have played for Genoa, but nothing else has really been written. Suffice to say, he probably never scaled the heights...
16. Dennis Serban
Signed for Valenica, deemed the new Hagi, but never really featured and was farmed out on loan to Villarreal and Elche. Capped 9 times for Romania, he is now coach for Astra Ploiesti
17. Ole Tobiasen
Came throught the Ajax youth system. Missed the 98 world Cup and 2000 Euros through injury, he won 6 caps for Denmark, but really has been nothing more than a journeyman through Dutch football.
18. Francesco Totti
One of the few world class players in the list and remains utterly crucial to Roma. On his day he is on the best in the world, but while he is an undoubted giallorossi legend, he never really did it for Italy.
19. Igor Tudor
A Croatian centre half who spent 10 years at Juve and won 55 caps. Rightly regarded as Croatia's finest defender of recent history. Not a star by any means, but a player who would have graced any team's back line and not looked out of place. Now at Hadjuk Split.
20. Kenneth Zeigbo
Played 3 times for Nigeria in a career that has taken him to numerous countries without much of note.
Overall it makes for pretty sad reading really. But such is football - a combo of injuries, lac of motivation, or just plain bad luck was probably enough to curtail most of these player's careers. Overall, Riquelme and Totti are probably the two world class players on the list, although they were already coming to prominence when the article was first written.
In the interests of fairness, here's a few players to watch out for. Based entirely on who you should sign on Football Manager (which let's face has never been a bad indicator of future sucess!)
Bojan Krkic (Barcelona/Spain/Serbia)
Ignacio Camacho (Atletico/Spain)
Hatem Ben Arfa (Lyon/France)
Carlos Vela (Arsenal/Mexico)
Ruben Ramos (Atletico/Spain)
Daniel de las Heras (Real Madrid/Spain)
Antonio Cerrajero (Atletico/Spain)
Rafinha (Schalke/Brazil)
Andres Guardado (Deportivo/Mexico)
Valon Behrami (Lazio/Switzerland)
Igor Akinfeev (CSKA/Russia)
Manucho (Man Utd/Angola)
Banega (Valencia/Argentina)
Pato (Milan/Brazil)
That should do...
* Fact of the day: In Sanskrit the word "war" can literally be translated as 'desire for more cows'.
Here's a link to an article which combines two of my favourite topics of conversation - football and unrecognised nations.
